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I underestimated AI capabilities (again) - by Ajeya Cotra

planned-obsolescence.org · 2,560 words · saved by 1 readers

Revisiting a prediction ten months early

I underestimated AI capabilities (again) Revisiting a prediction ten months early Ajeya Cotra Mar 05, 2026 109 32 9 Share On Jan 14th, I made predictions about AI progress in 2026. My forecasts for software engineering capabilities already feel much too conservative. In my view, METR (where I now work) has some of the hardest and highest-quality software engineering and ML engineering benchmarks out there, and the most useful framework for making benchmark performance intuitive: we measure a task’s difficulty by the amount of time a human expert would take to complete it (called the “time hori

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