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AI Futures Model

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This website presents the AI Futures Model (Dec 2025 version), following up on the timelines and takeoff models we published alongside AI 2027. Predicting superhuman AI capabilities inherently requires much intuition and guesswork, but we've nonetheless found quantitative modeling to be useful. To the right you can see the output of our model with each parameter set to Eli's median estimate (Eli is lead author). The default displayed milestone dates differ from the median of our Monte Carlo simulations; you can see the results of those on the Forecast page. The Forecast page also describes how we adjust the model outputs to get our all-things-considered views. Date of Automated Coder (AC) Date of Superintelligence (ASI) This website presents the AI Futures Model (Dec 2025 version), following up on the timelines and takeoff models we published alongside AI 2027. Predicting superhuman AI capabilities inherently requires much intuition and guesswork, but we've nonetheless found quantitati

AI Futures Model

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