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Forecasting: Lecture Notes - 5 Zeroth and First Order Forecasting

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Let’s say you are trying to predict how long it will take to finish your homework assignment. You think about all the problems and how long each will take. Problem 4 looks a little hard but you’re sure if you try real hard you can solve it in 2 hours. Okay, so maybe 7 hours total? Plenty of time to finish if you start the afternoon before it’s due! Of course, the last 3 homework assignments all took between 12 and 16 hours… You’re getting ready to go to class in the morning. Your first class is at 9:10 am. When should you leave? Well, google maps says 8 minutes from your dorm, but if you bike real fast you can do it in 6. So it’s probably fine to leave at 9:04… …you say to yourself, and then get to class at 9:20 (just like the last 3 times). Because of course, you forgot to account for the time it takes to tie your shoes, find your keys, put on your backpack, unlock your bike, lock your bike, and walk to the classroom. These are both instances of the planning fallacy, where humans regu

Forecasting: Lecture Notes - 5 Zeroth and First Order Forecasting Let’s say you are trying to predict how long it will take to finish your homework assignment. You think about all the problems and how long each will take. Problem 4 looks a little hard but you’re sure if you try real hard you can solve it in 2 hours. Okay, so maybe 7 hours total? Plenty of time to finish if you start the afternoon before it’s due! Of course, the last 3 homework assignments all took between 12 and 16 hours… You’re getting ready to go to class in the morning. Your first class is at 9:10 am. When should you leave?

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