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The Illusion of Knowledge

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I’ve been expressing my disregard for forecasts for almost as long as I’ve been writing my memos, starting with The Value of Predictions, or Where’d All This Rain Come From in February 1993.  Over the years since then, I’ve explained at length why I’m not interested in forecasts – a few of my favorite quotes echoing my disdain head the sections below – but I’ve never devoted a memo to explaining why making helpful macro forecasts is so difficult.  So here it is. Food for Thought There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know. – John Kenneth Galbraith Shortly after putting the finishing touches on I Beg to Differ in July, I attended a lunch with a number of experienced investors, plus a few people from outside the investment industry.  It wasn’t organized as a social occasion but rather an opportunity for those present to exchange views regarding the investment environment. At one point, the host posed a series of questions: What’s you

The Illusion of Knowledge Opens in a new window Opens an external site Opens an external site in a new window PDF Translations Japanese Korean Simplified Chinese Traditional Chinese Memos from Howard Marks 2022-09-08T07:00:00.0000000Z" pubdate title="Time posted: >9/8/2022 7:00:00 AM (UTC)">Sep 8, 2022 PDF (English) PDF (Translations) Listen to Memo Archived Memos Subscribe The Illusion of Knowledge I've been expressing my disregard for forecasts for almost as long as I've been writing my memos, starting with The Value of Predictions, or Where'd All This Rain Come From in February 1993. Over t

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