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IMO challenge bet with Eliezer — LessWrong

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Eliezer and I publicly stated some predictions about AI performance on the IMO by 2025. In honor of OpenAI's post Solving (Some) Formal Math Problems, it seems good to publicly state and clarify our predictions, have a final chance to adjust them, and say a bit in advance about how we'd update. Eliezer and I had an exchange in November 2021.[1] My final prediction (after significantly revising my guesses after looking up IMO questions and medal thresholds) was: I'd put 4% on "For the 2022, 2023, 2024, or 2025 IMO an AI built before the IMO is able to solve the single hardest problem" where "hardest problem" = "usually problem #6, but use problem #3 instead if either: (i) problem 6 is geo or (ii) problem 3 is combinatorics and problem 6 is algebra." (Would prefer just pick the hardest problem after seeing the test but seems better to commit to a procedure.) Maybe I'll go 8% on "gets gold" instead of "solves hardest problem." Eliezer spent less time revising his prediction, but said (ear

x IMO challenge bet with Eliezer — LessWrong AI Timelines Betting Forecasts (Specific Predictions) AI Frontpage 188 IMO challenge bet with Eliezer by paulfchristiano 26th Feb 2022 4 min read 30 188 Eliezer and I publicly stated some predictions about AI performance on the IMO by 2025. In honor of OpenAI's post Solving (Some) Formal Math Problems , it seems good to publicly state and clarify our predictions, have a final chance to adjust them, and say a bit in advance about how we'd update. The predictions Eliezer and I had an exchange in November 2021 . [1] My final prediction (after significa

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