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The correct response to uncertainty is *not* half-speed

lesswrong.com · 5,167 words · saved by 5 readers

Once upon a time (true story), I was on my way to a hotel in a new city.  I knew the hotel was many miles down this long, branchless road.  So I drove for a long while. After a while, I began to worry I had passed the hotel. So, instead of proceeding at 60 miles per hour the way I had been, I continued in the same direction for several more minutes at 30 miles per hour, wondering if I should keep going or turn around. I think for me the problem is that I'm not being Bayesian. I can't make my brain assign 50% probability in a unified way. Instead, half my brain is convinced the hotel's definitely behind me, half is convinced it's ahead, they fail to cooperate on the epistemic prisoner's dilemma and instead play tug-of-war with the steering wheel. And however I decide to make up my mind, they don't stop playing tug-of-war with the steering wheel. My brain often defaults to thinking of these situations in terms of potential loss, and I find the CFAR technique of reframing it as potential

x The correct response to uncertainty is *not* half-speed — LessWrong Bonus: Best Essays of LessWrong Planning & Decision-Making Decision theory Goal Factoring Rationality Frontpage 289 The correct response to uncertainty is *not* half-speed by AnnaSalamon 15th Jan 2016 3 min read 46 289 Related to: Half-assing it with everything you've got ; Wasted motion ; Say it Loud . Once upon a time (true story), I was on my way to a hotel in a new city. I knew the hotel was many miles down this long, branchless road. So I drove for a long while. After a while, I began to worry I had passed the hotel. So

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