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Be less scared of overconfidence | benkuhn.net

benkuhn.net · 2,573 words · saved by 10 readers

deferring to markets • deferring to experts • deferring to low-information heuristics • why they fail • blindness to outliers • what to do instead

When I was deciding whether to work for Wave , I got very hung up on the fact that my "total compensation" would be "lower." The scare quotes are there because Wave and my previous employer, Theorem , were both early-stage startups that were paying me mostly in fake startup bucks equity. To figure out the total compensation, I tried to guess how much money the equity in each company was worth, with a thought process something like: Both of these companies have been invested in by reputable, top-tier venture capitalists. The market for for-profit investments is pretty efficient , and most peopl

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