Henry Zimmerman

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By adopting an Inverse-Wishart prior and assuming Gaussian residuals, the reconciled predictive distribution follows a multivariate t-distribution, obtained in closed-form, rather than a multivariate Gaussian distribution
Modeling the uncertainty on the covariance matrix for probabilistic forecast reconciliation
estimated and then treated as known.
Modeling the uncertainty on the covariance matrix for probabilistic forecast reconciliation
requency properties are not relevant if and only if the prior and data generating model specification are beyond reasonable criticism – that is they can be taken as essentially correct (this would be the case say with diagnostic tests that have well known properties in populations with well known prevalence’s)
Bayes, statistics, and reproducibility: “Many serious problems with statistics in practice arise from Bayesian inference that is not Bayesian enough, or frequentist evaluation that is not frequentist enough, in both cases using replication distributions that do not make scientific sense or do not reflect the actual procedures being performed on the data.” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
For each parameter value, simulate fake data and perform the Bayesian analysis as if the data was real and record if the credible interval included the parameter value. Do this say 1000 times to estimate the coverage for that parameter value. Now do this for all possible parameter values or realistically for a sufficient range of them. If its convincing that No parameter values were left behind for sufficient simulation of battles they could have engaged in it is frequentist (some say the Bayesian label can now be thought of as just ornamental). That is, no one should object to these analyses …
Bayes, statistics, and reproducibility: “Many serious problems with statistics in practice arise from Bayesian inference that is not Bayesian enough, or frequentist evaluation that is not frequentist enough, in both cases using replication distributions that do not make scientific sense or do not reflect the actual procedures being performed on the data.” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
The frequency properties of Bayesian (or other) inference when the model is wrong—or, mathematically speaking, when you want to average over a joint distribution that’s not the same as the one in your inferential model—that’s another question entirely. That’s one thing makes frequency evaluation interesting and challenging. If we knew all our models were correct, statistics would simply be a branch of probability theory, hence a branch of mathematics, and nothing more.
Bayes, statistics, and reproducibility: “Many serious problems with statistics in practice arise from Bayesian inference that is not Bayesian enough, or frequentist evaluation that is not frequentist enough, in both cases using replication distributions that do not make scientific sense or do not reflect the actual procedures being performed on the data.” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Many serious problems with statistics in practice arise from Bayesian inference that is not Bayesian enough, or frequentist evaluation that is not frequentist enough, in both cases using replication distributions that do not make scientific sense or do not reflect the actual procedures being performed on the data
Bayes, statistics, and reproducibility: “Many serious problems with statistics in practice arise from Bayesian inference that is not Bayesian enough, or frequentist evaluation that is not frequentist enough, in both cases using replication distributions that do not make scientific sense or do not reflect the actual procedures being performed on the data.” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
The two central ideas in the foundations of statistics—Bayesian inference and frequentist evaluation—both are defined in terms of replications
Bayes, statistics, and reproducibility: “Many serious problems with statistics in practice arise from Bayesian inference that is not Bayesian enough, or frequentist evaluation that is not frequentist enough, in both cases using replication distributions that do not make scientific sense or do not reflect the actual procedures being performed on the data.” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Since negative results will directly contribute to a researcher's progress and can easily be cited, new works will credit both the positive and negative experiment-result pairs that influenced research direction.
Learning Well from Being Wrong | Niveditha Iyer
Requiring theories to explain negative results will enforce stronger guardrails on scientific slop.
Learning Well from Being Wrong | Niveditha Iyer
Let the language of class be one that I can read, but not one that I write in.
The Sedimentary Faultlines. - by Aurelia Zhang
What wouldn’t I give up? Would I be more free and successful if only I had less that I held onto? Or less human?
The Sedimentary Faultlines. - by Aurelia Zhang
Class is tied to moral perception, the way money and power retroactively justify their accumulation
The Sedimentary Faultlines. - by Aurelia Zhang
eople judge an experience as being more enjoyable if they believe they underestimated its duration
How Social Media Shortens Your Life - by Gurwinder
people are much better at memorising information when it’s presented in narrative form
How Social Media Shortens Your Life - by Gurwinder
The opposite of a maze is a route, and a route through time is a story. This is because stories are linear and syntagmatic — each moment of the tale semantically follows from the previous — and this collective meaningfulness anchors the whole thing in memory.
How Social Media Shortens Your Life - by Gurwinder
curvilinear paths that had no discernible corners, beginnings, or ends, and could thus be perpetually navigated on autopilot
How Social Media Shortens Your Life - by Gurwinder
This was partly to restrict their awareness, but also to create constant FOMO: players would hear excited hoots and cheers coming from a nearby cubicle, and go searching for the cause of the commotion. In doing so, they’d wander further into the maze.
How Social Media Shortens Your Life - by Gurwinder
The reason for this discrepancy is simple: when every post is alarming, your brain quickly becomes desensitised, and starts to interpret alarming content as routine. And routine, being passive and therefore immemorable, speeds up time.
How Social Media Shortens Your Life - by Gurwinder
Such an overwhelming environment would keep people distracted from themselves, so they’d remain instinctual rather than intentional, and hence compliant rather than resistant.
How Social Media Shortens Your Life - by Gurwinder
people want more content than humans can supply
Why Slop Matters
While there are a lot of caveats and limitations there, the fact that you could set up a speaker in your yard and conceivably store any amount of data in song birds is crazy
Yes, you can store data on a bird — enthusiast converts PNG to bird-shaped waveform, teaches young starling to recall file at up to 2MB/s | Tom's Hardware
great success of “curiosity-driven research”
Why do we do astrophysics?
The highest vacuums, strongest electromagnetic fields, and largest length scales are only accessible astronomically.
Why do we do astrophysics?
he felt like the area is a good one, because astronomy will always be studied by humanity, no matter what. The interest in astronomy is so deep, relevant research has been done by countless civilizations, as long as humans have been around (and probably before). In the same way that it is good that humans produce (and read) novels, and poetry, it is good that humans produce (and learn) new ideas in astronomy and astrophysics.
Why do we do astrophysics?
One of those facts is that astrophysics has no clinical value—its results provide no useful resources to humanity. That doesn’t mean there aren’t extremely important benefits of doing astrophysics
Why do we do astrophysics?
Another way to say all this is that astrophysics may occasionally and accidentally produce something useful. But astrophysics is not done (any more, in Western contexts22) with the goal of obtaining clinical or practical value. Clinical value is not part of the intent or goal of the work in astrophysics.23
Why do we do astrophysics?
with the exception of the Earth-crossing asteroids
Why do we do astrophysics?
I have spent years of my life estimating the comoving volume of the Universe [20], measuring the local dark-matter density [41], and finding planets around other stars [15]. No human outcome or pragmatic capability has been affected in the slightest by any of my results. Literally nothing helpful to humanity arises here.
Why do we do astrophysics?
Anyone who has the capability of getting a PhD in astrophysics has the capability of doing many remunerative things, substantially more remunerative than my job. Thus, anyone who is doing astrophysics (professionally) could be, instead, earning enough money to pay multiple professional astrophysicists to work on their behalf. That employed astrophysics team would get to the answers of any astrophysics questions faster than the individual could by working on their own. If all we really wanted was to know how the Universe worked, we would start a hedge fund, and use the proceeds to pay an astrop…
Why do we do astrophysics?
no-one on the team actually cares what the specific value is, even though each of them might have spent many hard years of their life figuring out how to make the measurement correctly
Why do we do astrophysics?
in the daisy chain of reasoning that is astrophysics, those wrong answers will propagate through to other, downstream results. It is imperative that we do our work as correctly as possible, and that we understand and admit the approximations and mistakes that we are making along the way. We must test those assumptions and correct those mistakes, perhaps not immediately, but over time, and as a community. We must call out mistakes and criticize wrong results and bad assumptions, and we must re-do analyses that we believe to be flawed. If we stop doing things rigorously and correctly, we have st…
Why do we do astrophysics?
We must use our resources efficiently.
Why do we do astrophysics?
a critical part of science is testing and verifying the tools and the literature and the work we do. Every paper we write does some partial verification of different parts of the scientific environment in which we work; we develop our trust as we work, and deliver effective verifications of different components to ourselves and others. But it is impossible for an investigator to test and verify everything; the untested things must be trusted.
Why do we do astrophysics?
For analysis of the Gaia data, a data scientist who has taken an astronomy class might be better prepared than an astronomer who has taken a data science class.
Why do we do astrophysics?
The novelty of the work is explicitly part of the project; astrophysics isn’t just techniques or results; it intrinsically involves innovation. Astrophysics lives at the cutting edge,4 not in the past.
Why do we do astrophysics?
new period–mass–radius relation and fit a mass–luminosity relation covering the mass range 2.3 − 4.6 M⊙ that clearly separates between different crossings of the instability strip.
Cepheids with giant companions
With the pending determination of the spectroscopic mass ratio ( 𝑞 𝑠 ), we used the pulsation periods of both components in its place.
Cepheids with giant companions
expand the parameter space of characterized individual Cepheids in mass, radius, period, and metallicity
Cepheids with giant companions
It presupposes an information-poor world, and it focuses exclusively on the protection of speakers from government, as if they were rare and delicate butterflies threatened by one terrible monster.
Is the First Amendment Obsolete? | Knight First Amendment Institute
now allows for blending/extrapolation of model atmospheres, meaning one can continue to make use of model atmospheres in cases when a small number of surface elements have parameters outside the model atmosphere grid
Physics of Eclipsing Binaries. VI. Hot, compact stars
If MEJA doesn’t have jurisdiction and the UCMJ doesn’t have jurisdiction, then how is the United States going to ensure that it has law-abiding contractors? The best-known gap filler is that the local laws will apply. This is where the water really starts to get murky. What if no local laws apply?
Legal Limbo: The Jurisdictional Maze of Private Military Contractors in Modern Warfare | Ave Maria School of Law
It was established as an attempt to reach beyond U.S. borders, where the U.S. criminal law typically has no power.
Legal Limbo: The Jurisdictional Maze of Private Military Contractors in Modern Warfare | Ave Maria School of Law
global spatial layout of clumps in the LMC and the MW shares a remarkably similar pattern when adjusting for galaxy size, suggesting a nested, hierarchical distribution
Shared star formation in the Milky Way and Magellanic Clouds
They often operate outside any conventional legal framework, and their
private-military-companies-final-31-august.pdf
increasing complexity of some out - of - area operations
private-military-companies-final-31-august.pdf
wider process of the dismantling and reconfiguration of some of the tra ditional tools of state sovereignty in response to the rapidly evolving security environment
private-military-companies-final-31-august.pdf
if Levinas is to preserve the Other, the Other cannot become an object of knowledge or experience within the totality of an egology
Emmanuel Levinas
"Western philosophy," writes Levinas (1969), "has most often been an ontology: a reduction of the Other to the Same by interposition of a middle and neutral terms that ensures the comprehension of being"
Emmanuel Levinas
Ethics," in Levinas' sense, does not mean what is typically referred to as "morality," or a code of conduct about how one should act.
Emmanuel Levinas
We only know men. W e must only know men.
We-Know-Only-Men-Reading-Emmanuel-Levinas-On-The-Rez.pdf