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In-Depth Analysis of the Polymarket Bot Battle Experiment: Why Do the 'Dumbest' Strategies Live the Longest? | 万联welinkBTC on Binance Square

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A week-long simulation competition involving four trading bots on Polymarket, each with a capital of $500, revealed the brutal survival rules of prediction markets. The 'reverse strategy' bot (which bets against the market consensus after it reaches over 80%) won with $1,740, while the theoretically smartest 'arbitrage strategy' bot only perished with $82. The experimental conclusion points directly to the essence of the market: "The smartest strategies die the fastest because the market adapts to them; the most boring strategies live the longest because they only act when certain." Although this experiment is a strategic simulation story, the three major rules it reveals—'Yes Bias' (the market overestimates positive outcomes), the rapid degradation of arbitrage margins, and the long-term advantages of deterministic games—are fully corroborated by real on-chain data from Polymarket. Currently, about 37% of the trading volume on the platform is generated by Bot addresses, which account

A week-long simulation competition involving four trading bots on Polymarket, each with a capital of $500, revealed the brutal survival rules of prediction markets. The 'reverse strategy' bot (which bets against the market consensus after it reaches over 80%) won with $1,740, while the theoretically smartest 'arbitrage strategy' bot only perished with $82. The experimental conclusion points directly to the essence of the market: "The smartest strategies die the fastest because the market adapts to them; the most boring strategies live the longest because they only act when certain."…

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