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Black Swan Bias: Rare Events Don’t Happen Everyday

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Hey there! Thanks for visiting. But I’ve shifted to Substack as of 2022 and don’t actively publish here anymore. Today, let’s talk about Black Swan events. More precisely, something I call the Black Swan Bias. A Black Swan is a rare event that comes as a surprise, has a major impact, and is often inappropriately rationalised with the benefit of hindsight later. By definition Black Swans don’t occur very often. Common events have a high probability of occurring, and this is something we often forget. This is Black Swan Bias. Let me illustrate with an example. Do you remember the last time you had a headache or back pain or flu (or just about any ailment) and you went online to diagnose and search for a possible cure? There’s a good chance you stumbled on something like, “…in rare cases, it can be a sign of cancer.” Even though this information is enough to trigger a mini panic attack, this is a false alarm. According to the law of averages, common events have a high probability of occur

Today, let’s talk about Black Swan events. More precisely, something I call the Black Swan Bias . A Black Swan is a rare event that comes as a surprise, has a major impact, and is often inappropriately rationalised with the benefit of hindsight later. By definition Black Swans don’t occur very often. Common events have a high probability of occurring, and this is something we often forget. This is Black Swan Bias. Let me illustrate with an example. Do you remember the last time you had a headache or back pain or flu (or just about any ailment) and you went online to diagnose and search for a p

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