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What is a Black Swan?

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Black swans are the unexpected outliers, the rare and unpredictable events that defy our usual expectations and profoundly impact our world. They are the surprises that no one sees coming, the game-changers that reshape the landscape of the possible. Black swans are reminders that the future is always more surprising than we imagine. Think of the rise of the internet, COVID-19, or the attack on 9/11. Each of these events was, in its own way, a black swan — an unexpected occurrence that had an extreme impact and was only explainable in retrospect. [Black Swans] are event[s] with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact…. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable. Black Swans are what you don’t see. Th

Black swans are the unexpected outliers, the rare and unpredictable events that defy our usual expectations and profoundly impact our world. They are the surprises that no one sees coming, the game-changers that reshape the landscape of the possible. Black swans are reminders that the future is always more surprising than we imagine. Think of the rise of the internet, COVID-19, or the attack on 9/11. Each of these events was, in its own way, a black swan — an unexpected occurrence that had an extreme impact and was only explainable in retrospect. [Black Swans] are event[s] with the…

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