Notes on technology in the 2020s

Will we end the Great Stagnation? Here are the technologies I'm watching in the next decade.

As we start a new decade, it’s a good time to reflect on expectations for the next 10 years. Tyler thinks the Great Stagnation could be ending. Caleb sees cracks. Noah expresses techno-optimism. In this post, my aim is not to predict an end or non-end to stagnation. Rather, it is to think through the particulars of how technology could evolve over the next decade. Then we can assess separately whether we should consider it the Roaring 20s or the Boring 20s. What would constitute an end to the Great Stagnation? Any precise cutoff will be arbitrary, but for the sake of discussion, let’s say…

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• Blake Elias
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• Felipe Calero Forero

related reading

• Stripe Press — Ideas for progresspress.stripe.com
• My techno-optimismvitalik.eth.limo
• Works in Progress Magazineworksinprogress.co
• Works in Progress Magazineworksinprogress.co
• Some interesting open problems in technology | Locklin on sciencescottlocklin.wordpress.com
• Technological stagnation: Why I came aroundrootsofprogress.org
• Techno-optimism for 2023noahpinion.substack.com
• The Death and Birth of Technological Revolutions – Stratechery by Ben Thompsonstratechery.com
• The "most important century" blog post seriescold-takes.com
• Reflections on 2025samuelalbanie.substack.com
• Interview: Peter Thiel on Scientific Stagnationharvardsalient.com
• Nanotechnology’s spring - Works in Progress Magazineworksinprogress.co