Why should I have opinions about AI timelines?
substack.com · 1,143 words · saved by 1 readers
Thoughts about deference
August 2026 update: The original version below was written in March 2026. The piece was originally written about AI timelines, as it felt related to impact calculations & career decisions I was trying to make around that time. I now think the piece is less related to why one should have opinions about timelines in particular, but rather an illustrative snapshot of some reasoning pattern I followed that led me to pretty confusing conclusions, that is analogous to many topics that are not timelines. Also, I recently realized that the confusions I describe below has been well discussed in Toby…
saved by
related reading
- Deferral is a skilllawsen.substack.com
- Broad Timelines - Toby Ordtobyord.com
- AI Timelines — LessWronglesswrong.com
- AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the "Experts," Standcold-takes.com
- Consider chilling out in 2028 — LessWronglesswrong.com
- You will be OK — LessWronglesswrong.com
- How do we (more) safely defer to AIs? — LessWronglesswrong.com
- Where I agree and disagree with Eliezer — LessWronglesswrong.com
- Why do people disagree about when powerful AI will arrive?blog.bluedot.org
- "Long" timelines to advanced AI have gotten crazy shorthelentoner.substack.com
- What the hell happened with AGI timelines in 2026? | 80,000 Hours80000hours.org
- Do confident short timelines make sense? — LessWronglesswrong.com