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On AI and Interest Rates - by Zvi Mowshowitz

thezvi.substack.com · 2,435 words · saved by 1 readers

Therefore, either (A) AI not only isn’t about to end the world it also is not about to do anything economically that powerful or (B) the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is false. In conclusion: There is no one in the market to price this in. Beyond avoiding wrong-way investments and locking in low-interest loans, the few who buy the hypothesis have better trades to make than betting on future interest rates. Nor is the market meaningfully considering and then rejecting the hypothesis. The pre-Covid-pandemic market did not peak until February 20, 2020. Thank you for coming to my TED Talk. The OP claims that option B implies there is treasure everywhere. No. A lot of comments attempt to explain. Even the OP’s proposed trade would, under favorable assumptions, only return about 10%. That’s at best a highly mediocre trade, in its full context. At a minimum, again assuming you buy the hypothesis, buying a portfolio of companies that would profit from transformative AI is a superior play.

Note, To say it up front: None of this, or anything ever on this blog, is investment advice. This post on the EA form, highlighted by Tyler Cowen, points out that Transformative aligned AI would increase real interest rates. A lot. Transformative unaligned AI would increase real interest rates. A lot. Markets continue to have low interest rates not pricing this in. Therefore, either (A) AI not only isn’t about to end the world it also is not about to do anything economically that powerful or (B) the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is false. In conclusion: There is no one in the…

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