blog.alexalemi.com A Degree of Certainty
With the upcoming election, I found myself thinking about the old NYTimes Needle and, more generally, about how to best represent and communicate probabilities.1
A Degree of Certainty Alexander A. Alemi. 2024-08-14 With the upcoming election, I found myself thinking about the old NYTimes Needle and, more generally, about how to best represent and communicate probabilities. 1 Note: if you want to see how this looks in the context of the 2024 Presidential election, see here . 1 For a fantastic overview, see Matthew Kay's talk: A biased tour of the uncertainty visualization zoo . We already have many ways to discuss degrees of belief: probabilties , percents , 2 odds , log-odds , nats , bits , decibans , etc. Why don't we add another to the mix. What if w
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