The Importance of Diminishing Returns - Econlib
In graduate school, I recall a professor suggesting that the rational expectations revolution would eventually lead to much better models of the macroeconomy. I was skeptical, and in my view, that didn’t happen. This is not because there is anything wrong with the rational expectations approach to macro, which I strong support. Rather I believe that the advances coming out of this theoretical innovation occurred very rapidly. For instance, by the time I had this discussion (around 1979), people like John Taylor and Stanley Fischer had already grafted rational expectations onto sticky wage and price models, which contributed to the New Keynesian revolution. Since that time, macro seems stuck in a rut (apart from some later innovations from the Princeton School (related to the zero lower bound issue.) In my view, the most useful applications of a new conceptual approach tend to come quickly in highly competitive fields like economics, science and the arts. In the past few years, I’ve
The Importance of Diminishing Returns 16 Scott Sumner Categories: Microeconomics Technology By Scott Sumner, Nov 13 2024 SHARE POST: --> In graduate school, I recall a professor suggesting that the rational expectations revolution would eventually lead to much better models of the macroeconomy. I was skeptical, and in my view, that didn’t happen. This is not because there is anything wrong with the rational expectations approach to macro, which I strong support. Rather I believe that the advances coming out of this theoretical innovation occurred very rapidly. For instance, by the time I
saved by
related reading
- Economics and Transformative AI | Tom Cunningham – Tom Cunninghamtecunningham.github.io
- Dario Amodei — "We are near the end of the exponential"dwarkesh.com
- Why AGI Will Not Happen - Tim Dettmerstimdettmers.com
- AI progress is about to speed up | Epoch AIepoch.ai
- Dario Amodei — "We are near the end of the exponential"dwarkesh.com
- I. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs - SITUATIONAL AWARENESSsituational-awareness.ai
- The Sigmoids Won't Save You - by Scott Alexanderastralcodexten.com
- AK or just okay? AI and economic growthjzmazlish.substack.com
- An Apple-Picking Model of AI R&D | Tom Cunningham – Tom Cunninghamtecunningham.github.io
- Lossy self-improvement - by Nathan Lambertinterconnects.ai
- AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besirogludwarkesh.com
- The Extreme Inefficiency of RL for Frontier Models - Toby Ordtobyord.com