The AI Industrial Explosion — Part 1: Maximum growth rates with current production methods
How fast can an AI-driven economy grow? Economists expect a few percentage points; at best those closer to AI development imagine Dyson spheres within years. Who is correct?
How fast could an AI-driven economy grow? Most economists expect a few percentage points at best, comparable to previous general-purpose technologies ( Acemoglu (2024) ). Those closer to AI development tend to imagine something much more radical ( Shulman (2023) ; Davidson and Hadshar (2025) ). This series aims to ground growth rates in how physical production works. Once human labor is automated, the constraint on growth becomes the speed at which the economy's physical capital can reproduce itself. Government input-output tables track the full supply chain of what it takes to produce every c
saved by
related reading
- Policy Briefs 26-7: Where is AI in GDP statistics?piie.com
- Why I think AI take-off is relatively slow - Marginal REVOLUTIONmarginalrevolution.com
- Why transformative artificial intelligence is really, really hard to achievethegradient.pub
- Forecasts of AI & Economic Growth | Tom Cunningham – Tom Cunninghamtecunningham.github.io
- IIIa. Racing to the Trillion-Dollar Cluster - SITUATIONAL AWARENESSsituational-awareness.ai
- Scenarios for our Economic Futureanthropic.com
- AK or just okay? AI and economic growthjzmazlish.substack.com
- Can advanced AI lead to negative economic growth?aleximas.substack.com
- w31815.pdfnber.org
- Economics and Transformative AI | Tom Cunningham – Tom Cunninghamtecunningham.github.io
- Deep Dive: Economics of the AI Build-Out | Contrary Researchresearch.contrary.com
- Will AI R&D Automation Cause a Software Intelligence Explosion?forethought.org