Why I think AI take-off is relatively slow - Marginal REVOLUTION
I’ve already covered much of this in my podcast with Dwarkesh, but I thought it would be useful to write it all out in one place. I’ll assume you already know the current state of the debate. Here goes: 1. Due to the Baumol-Bowen cost disease, less productive sectors tend to become a larger share […]
I’ve already covered much of this in my podcast with Dwarkesh , but I thought it would be useful to write it all out in one place. I’ll assume you already know the current state of the debate. Here goes: 1. Due to the Baumol-Bowen cost disease, less productive sectors tend to become a larger share of the economy over time. This already has been happening since the American economy originated. A big chunk of current gdp already is slow to respond, highly inefficient, governmental or government-subsidized sectors. They just won’t adopt AI, or use it effectively, all that quickl
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related reading
- Why transformative artificial intelligence is really, really hard to achievethegradient.pub
- Economics and Transformative AI | Tom Cunningham – Tom Cunninghamtecunningham.github.io
- AI as Normal Technology | Knight First Amendment Instituteknightcolumbia.org
- AK or just okay? AI and economic growthjzmazlish.substack.com
- Forecasts of AI & Economic Growth | Tom Cunningham – Tom Cunninghamtecunningham.github.io
- Intelligence is not the main bottleneck - by Ruxandra Teslowritingruxandrabio.com
- The AI Industrial Explosion — Part 1: Maximum growth rates with current production methodsdefensesindepth.bio
- Alex Imas and Phil Trammell – What remains scarce after AGI?dwarkesh.com
- Exploring How AI Will Impact the Economybridgewater.com
- AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besirogludwarkesh.com
- w32105.pdfnber.org
- Why transformative AI is really, really hard to achieve | Zhengdongzhengdongwang.com