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Why I think AI take-off is relatively slow - Marginal REVOLUTION

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I’ve already covered much of this in my podcast with Dwarkesh, but I thought it would be useful to write it all out in one place.  I’ll assume you already know the current state of the debate.  Here goes: 1. Due to the Baumol-Bowen cost disease, less productive sectors tend to become a larger share […]

I’ve already covered much of this in my podcast with Dwarkesh , but I thought it would be useful to write it all out in one place. I’ll assume you already know the current state of the debate. Here goes: 1. Due to the Baumol-Bowen cost disease, less productive sectors tend to become a larger share of the economy over time. This already has been happening since the American economy originated. A big chunk of current gdp already is slow to respond, highly inefficient, governmental or government-subsidized sectors. They just won’t adopt AI, or use it effectively, all that quickl

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