We were wrong about convergence

Several years ago, we celebrated a new era of unconditional convergence of global incomes. Since then, the trend has reversed.

We were wrong about convergence Several years ago, we celebrated a new era of unconditional convergence of global incomes. Since then, the trend has reversed. Justin Sandefur and Arvind Subramanian Dec 12, 2025 1 Share Bob Solow’s original 1956 formulation of the neoclassical growth model predicted that poorer countries would grow faster than rich ones. Capital flows—from rich to poor— would be the great leveler. Three decades later, the advent of the Penn World Tables gave economists access to comparable cross-country data to test that hypothesis rigorously. It proved false. From the 1960s th

saved by

• Katherine Driscoll
• Yudhister Joel Kumar
• Verda Korzeniewski

related reading

• Why poor countries stopped catching updavidoks.blog
• Economic development is doing OKnoahpinion.substack.com
• Capital in the 22nd Centuryphiliptrammell.substack.com
• oliverwkim.comoliverwkim.com
• The Long, Slow Death of Global Development - American Affairs Journalamericanaffairsjournal.org
• The Solow Model is overrated (for explaining catch-up growth) — Basil Halperinbasilhalperin.com
• The age of uncertainty. Liminal timemetapolis.net
• The Value of Nothing: Capital versus Growth - American Affairs Journalamericanaffairsjournal.org
• This Can't Go Oncold-takes.com
• GDP and prosperity across technology pathsphiliptrammell.substack.com
• Inequality might be going down nowsubstack.com
• The 2024 Nobel Laureates Are Not Only Wrong About China, But Also About the Westtheideasletter.org