Taboo "Outside View" — LessWrong

People use the term "outside view" to mean very different things. Daniel argues this is problematic, because different uses of "outside view" can hav…

x Taboo "Outside View" — LessWrong Best of LessWrong 2021 Inside/Outside View Distinctions Rationalist Taboo Forecasting & Prediction Updated Beliefs (examples thereof) Community Rationality Curated 372 Taboo "Outside View" by Daniel Kokotajlo 17th Jun 2021 9 min read 31 372 No one has ever seen an AGI takeoff, so any attempt to understand it must use these outside view considerations. —[Redacted for privacy] What? That’s exactly backwards. If we had lots of experience with past AGI takeoffs, using the outside view to predict the next one would be a lot more effective. —My reaction Two years a

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