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Futurism Is Always Extreme

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Rigorous thinking about the future produces extreme outcomes.

26 August, 2026 Cover for Neuromancer in the style of Paul Klee, DALL-E 2, June 2022. Any rigorous thinking about the long-term future leads to extreme outcomes. It cannot, by construction, produce normal or mundane futures. “Rigorous thinking” means you have a model: a formalism for representing the state of the world, and a transition function to advance the state. You put the world into the formalism, and turn the crank to get successive states of the world. Models can be qualitative or quantitative. Most thinking about the future is qualitative and informal: people think in terms of…

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