Why software projects take longer than you think: a statistical model · Erik Bernhardsson

Anyone who built software for a while knows that estimating how long something is going to take is hard. It's hard to come up with an unbiased estimate of how long something will take, when fundamentally the work in itself is about solving something.

Why software projects take longer than you think: a statistical model 2019-04-15 Anyone who built software for a while knows that estimating how long something is going to take is hard . It's hard to come up with an unbiased estimate of how long something will take, when fundamentally the work in itself is about solving something. One pet theory I've had for a really long time, is that some of this is really just a statistical artifact. I suspect devs are actually decent at estimating the *median* time to complete a task. Planning is hard because they suck at the *average*. - Erik Bernhardsson

related reading

• How I estimate work as a staff software engineerseangoedecke.com
• [comic] The Planning Fallacy: Why We're Terrible at Setting Realistic Deadlinesblog.doist.com
• Planning fallacy - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
• Planning fallacy - The Decision Labthedecisionlab.com
• How I've run major projects | benkuhn.netbenkuhn.net
• The Mythical Man-Month - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
• Planning Fallacyreadthesequences.com
• What is Hofstadter's law? - TechTarget Definitiontechtarget.com
• Fermi Estimates — LessWronglesswrong.com
• Optimism Shapes Reality - by Alexandr Wangalexw.substack.com
• Finish your projectsgithub.com
• Project Planning: Scheduling & Estimating Activity Duration - Robots For Roboticistsrobotsforroboticists.com