Why software projects take longer than you think: a statistical model · Erik Bernhardsson
Anyone who built software for a while knows that estimating how long something is going to take is hard. It's hard to come up with an unbiased estimate of how long something will take, when fundamentally the work in itself is about solving something.
Why software projects take longer than you think: a statistical model 2019-04-15 Anyone who built software for a while knows that estimating how long something is going to take is hard . It's hard to come up with an unbiased estimate of how long something will take, when fundamentally the work in itself is about solving something. One pet theory I've had for a really long time, is that some of this is really just a statistical artifact. I suspect devs are actually decent at estimating the *median* time to complete a task. Planning is hard because they suck at the *average*. - Erik Bernhardsson
related reading
- How I estimate work as a staff software engineerseangoedecke.com
- Searching for outliers | benkuhn.netbenkuhn.net
- How much do you believe your results? — LessWronglesswrong.com
- Be less scared of overconfidence | benkuhn.netbenkuhn.net
- Optimism Shapes Reality - by Alexandr Wangalexw.substack.com
- How I ship projects at big tech companiesseangoedecke.com
- Every layer of review makes you 10x slowerapenwarr.ca
- The Math of Why You Can't Focus at Work | Off by Onejustoffbyone.com
- What is Hofstadter's law? - TechTarget Definitiontechtarget.com
- Planning fallacy - The Decision Labthedecisionlab.com
- The Mythical Man-Month - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
- Timing Technology: Lessons From The Media Lab · Gwern.netgwern.net