Planning fallacy - The Decision Lab

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The planning fallacy describes our tendency to underestimate the amount of time it will take to complete a task, as well as the costs and risks associated with that task—even if it contradicts our experiences. Most of us work & live in environments that aren’t optimized for solid decision-making. We work with organizations of all kinds to identify sources of cognitive bias & develop tailored solutions. John, a university student, has a paper due in one week. John has written many papers of a similar length before, and it generally takes him about a week to get it done. Nonetheless, as he is dividing up his time, John is positive that he can finish the assignment in three days, so he puts off starting. In the end, he doesn’t have the paper finished in time, and needs to ask for an extension. Most of us work & live in environments that aren’t optimized for solid decision-making. We work with organizations of all kinds to identify sources of cognitive bias & develop tailored solutions. Ju

Why do we underestimate how long it will take to complete a task? The planning fallacy describes our tendency to underestimate the amount of time it will take to complete a task, as well as the costs and risks associated with that task—even if it contradicts our experiences. CategoryAmbiguity Reading time19 min read Where this bias occurs First identified by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, this bias affects individuals, teams, and organizations alike. Whether it's building a house, launching a product, or studying for an exam, people tend to create overly optimistic…

Planning fallacy - The Decision Lab

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