Against The Generalized Anti-Caution Argument

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Against The Generalized Anti-Caution Argument ... Scott Alexander Nov 22, 2024 396 499 26 Share Suppose something important will happen at a certain unknown point. As someone approaches that point, you might be tempted to warn that the thing will happen. If you’re being appropriately cautious, you’ll warn about it before it happens. Then your warning will be wrong. As things continue to progress, you may continue your warnings, and you’ll be wrong each time. Then people will laugh at you and dismiss your predictions, since you were always wrong before. Then the thing will happen and they’ll be

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