Predictable updating about AI risk - Joe Carlsmith
joecarlsmith.com · 10,474 words · saved by 1 readers
How worried about AI risk will we be when we can see advanced machine intelligence up close? We should worry accordingly now.
1. Introduction Here’s a pattern you may have noticed. A new frontier AI, like GPT-4, gets released. People play with it. It’s better than the previous AIs, and many people are impressed. And as a result, many people who weren’t worried about existential risk from misaligned AI (hereafter: “AI risk”) get much more worried.1 Now, if these people didn’t expect AI to get so much better so soon, such a pattern can make sense. And so, too, if they got other unexpected evidence for AI risk – for example, concerned experts signing letters and quitting their jobs. But if you’re a good Bayesian,…
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