Simply locate yourself
Imagine I offer you the following bet: I'll roll a fair ten-sided die. If it comes up 1-9, you win a million dollars. If it comes up 0, you lose $10,000. (If you're significantly richer or poorer than the median person, adjust the numbers up or down accordingly, such
Imagine I offer you the following bet: I'll roll a fair ten-sided die. If it comes up 1-9, you win a million dollars. If it comes up 0, you lose $10,000. (If you're significantly richer or poorer than the median person, adjust the numbers up or down accordingly, such that winning is very great and losing hurts a lot, but is manageable.) Imagine that you take the bet, because those odds are ridiculously in your favor. Now imagine that I roll the die, and you watch it rolling, and rolling, and rolling, until it starts to settle, and then it settles… on 0. Imagine the sinking feeling you might ge
saved by
related reading
- Multiverseen.wikipedia.org
- The Lifespan Dilemma — LessWronglesswrong.com
- How to Seem (and Be) Deep — LessWronglesswrong.com
- default statesreading.supply
- A Reconception of Destinyorbistertius.substack.com
- Probabilities are not the right concept — LessWronglesswrong.com
- The Periodic Box Problem | The Excluded Riddlegabrieldwu.com
- Thoughtsn.cohomology.group
- The Hour I First Believed | Slate Star Codexslatestarcodex.com
- Burning Utopiasubstack.com
- DAVID BRIN: Reality Checkdavidbrin.com
- EDT with updating double counts – The sideways viewsideways-view.com