Preventing AI Chip Smuggling to China | Center for a New American Security (en-US)
China cannot legally import the most advanced artificial intelligence (AI) chips or the tooling to produce them. The large and growing computational requirements of the most powerful AI systems mean that these chips are nonetheless in high demand. Chinese tech giants recently placed $5 billion worth of orders for non-controlled U.S. AI chips, and there are active underground markets for these chips’ controlled counterparts.1 To the extent that it does and will happen, AI chip smuggling into China should not come as a surprise. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has a long history of diverting U.S. technology to restricted end uses and users, despite U.S. export restrictions.2 Many goods being smuggled into Russia today—including goods destined for Russia’s military—pass through China. In 2022 alone, about $570 million worth of U.S. chips were sold to Russia from Hong Kong and mainland China, despite sanctions.3 This post, which summarizes and builds on earlier research by the authors
China cannot legally import the most advanced artificial intelligence (AI) chips or the tooling to produce them. The large and growing computational requirements of the most powerful AI systems mean that these chips are nonetheless in high demand. Chinese tech giants recently placed $5 billion worth of orders for non-controlled U.S. AI chips, and there are active underground markets for these chips’ controlled counterparts. 1 To the extent that it does and will happen, AI chip smuggling into China should not come as a surprise. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has a long history of diverti
related reading
- How banned AI chips end up in Chinasubstack.com
- Dario Amodei — On DeepSeek and Export Controlsdarioamodei.com
- The Limits of Chip Export Controls in Meeting the China Challengecsis.org
- 2028: Two scenarios for global AI leadership \ Anthropicanthropic.com
- How Much Compute Does China Have?chinatalk.media
- Fab Whack-A-Mole: Chinese Companies are Evading U.S. Sanctionssemianalysis.com
- China's AI Models Are Closing the Gap—but America's Real Advantage Lies Elsewhere | RANDrand.org
- Should the US Sell Blackwell Chips to China? | IFPifp.org
- China's AI Chip Landscape: A Complete Map of Who's Building Whatcrossingriver.substack.com
- How to Buy Cheap Claude Tokens in Chinachinatalk.media
- AI 2040: Plan Aai-2040.com
- Dario Amodei — On DeepSeek and Export Controlsdarioamodei.com