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Dario Amodei — On DeepSeek and Export Controls

darioamodei.com · 3,489 words · saved by 2 readers

A few weeks ago I made the case for stronger US export controls on chips to China. Since then DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company, has managed to — at least in some respects — come close to the performance of US frontier AI models at lower cost. Here, I won't focus on whether DeepSeek is or isn't a threat to US AI companies like Anthropic (although I do believe many of the claims about their threat to US AI leadership are greatly overstated)1. Instead, I'll focus on whether DeepSeek's releases undermine the case for those export control policies on chips. I don't think they do. In fact, I think they make export control policies even more existentially important than they were a week ago2. Export controls serve a vital purpose: keeping democratic nations at the forefront of AI development. To be clear, they’re not a way to duck the competition between the US and China. In the end, AI companies in the US and other democracies must have better models than those in China if we want to prevail.

On DeepSeek and Export Controls January 2025 A few weeks ago I made the case for stronger US export controls on chips to China. Since then DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company, has managed to — at least in some respects — come close to the performance of US frontier AI models at lower cost. Here, I won't focus on whether DeepSeek is or isn't a threat to US AI companies like Anthropic (although I do believe many of the claims about their threat to US AI leadership are greatly overstated) 1 . Instead, I'll focus on whether DeepSeek's releases undermine the case for those export control policies on chi

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