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Will Jesus Christ return in an election year? – Unexpected Values

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Thanks to Jesse Richardson for discussion. Polymarket asks: will Jesus Christ return in 2025? In the three days since the market opened, traders have wagered over $100,000 on this question. The mar…

Eric Neyman Prediction markets , Predictions March 24, 2025 Thanks to Jesse Richardson for discussion. Polymarket asks: will Jesus Christ return in 2025? In the three days since the market opened, traders have wagered over $100,000 on this question. The market traded as high as 5%, and is now stably trading at 3%. Right now, if you wanted to, you could place a bet that Jesus Christ will not return this year, and earn over $13,000 if you’re right. There are two mysteries here: an easy one, and a harder one. The easy mystery is: if people are willing to bet $13,000 on “Yes”, wh

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