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The perils of election prediction markets

goodauthority.org · 1,165 words · saved by 1 readers

Some cautionary notes for media outlets partnering with prediction markets.

--> Photo by Anastasiia Nelen on Unsplash . The prediction market company Kalshi recently inked a deal to become a partner with CNN and then CNBC. The goal is to share real-time prediction data with these media outlets, like the probability that the Democratic nominee will win the presidential election or that the Fed will cut interest rates. There is reason for caution, however, about the value of prediction market data. That’s the conclusion of new research on the 2024 election prediction markets by my Vanderbilt colleagues Josh Clinton and TzuFeng Huang. They write: We analyze more than 2,5

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