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No, you can't bet on everything and that's okay - Nikhil R

rnikhil.com · 1,957 words · saved by 1 readers

Prediction markets, despite their theoretical promise and success in sports ($330B US betting volume) and elections ($40B in 2024), are unlikely to become mainstream for all future events due to fundamental demand and liquidity constraints. The core issue isn’t regulation or technology - it’s that none of the three key market participants find prediction markets appealing: gamblers want quick resolutions (42% of 2020 election volume traded in final week), long-term investors prefer growing wealth in traditional assets, and market makers can’t operate without consistent retail flow (there is no demand for betting on topics except elections and sports). This creates a structural chicken-and-egg problem where lack of demand and participations prevents reliable pricing, which in turn discourages serious folks. Due to these unfortunate structural issues, these markets only work in certain niches and in events with high public interest and pre-existing communities, immediate resolutions and

Can you bet on everything? - Nikhil R Can you bet on everything? Prediction markets, despite their promise and success in sports ($330B US betting volume) and elections ($40B in 2024), are yet to become mainstream due to fundamental demand and liquidity constraints. The issue isn’t regulation or technology - it’s that none of the three key market participants find strong PMF with prediction markets: gamblers want quick resolutions (42% of 2020 election volume traded in final week), long-term investors prefer growing wealth in traditional assets, and market makers can’t operate without consiste

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