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Model for Markets - Capital Flows

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For all the new subscribers, we are doing a series of articles breaking down the basics of what you need to know in markets. Here was the first laying out the path forward: And then here is the country analysis (link) and economic data (link). Now we move to asset markets. Asset Market: Here are the bullet points we will be going over Fundamentals connecting to economic data Equities Earnings, Valuations and cross-sectional fundamentals. Factors connecting to the regime Fixed Income Connecting to credit risk STIR, bills, notes, bonds Commodities FX FX Model: BoP, cross-border flows, reserves. FX forwards XCCY These are the main things I think about: Expectations vs Actual: - Economic Surprise Indices - MoM extrapolation, 3 Month Trend. - Earnings Surprise - EPS, Sales - Economic Mechanics/Structural Dynamics Set Probable Distribution/Skew for Expectations vs actual. Now let’s go one by one: I already went over economic data so let’s say you have built models to monitor all economic dat

Model for Markets Markets connecting to economic data Capital Flows Apr 02, 2023 66 1 3 Share Alright, let’s get right into it! For all the new subscribers, we are doing a series of articles breaking down the basics of what you need to know in markets. Here was the first laying out the path forward: Capital Flows Research Drop + Framework Alright guys, I will be going through a lot in this one but it will be helpful, especially if you are newer to financial markets. Basically, this is what I wish someone laid out for me a long time ago. As I said a couple of articles ago, we will be breaking d

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