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The Calculus of Value

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On July 28, I flew to South America on a plane without Wi-Fi, leaving me without email or entertainment. What was I to do but start in on a memo? Interestingly, the things I wrote during that flight turned out to be the answers to many of the questions I received from clients after I landed, so writing what follows served me well. I hope it’ll do the same for you. * * * January 2 of this year was the 25th anniversary of my memo bubble.com, the one that put my writing on the map, and I marked the occasion by publishing another memo, called On Bubble Watch. While the title may have raised concern for readers, my main conclusion was that the elevated U.S. stock market valuations at the time didn’t necessarily signal the existence of a bubble, mainly because I didn’t detect the extreme investor psychology I associate with bubbles. Security prices were “lofty but not nutty” is how I put it. Because a lot has taken place in the seven months since then, it’s time for an

The Calculus of Value Opens in a new window Opens an external site Opens an external site in a new window PDF Translations Japanese Korean Simplified Chinese Traditional Chinese Memos from Howard Marks 2025-08-14T07:00:00.0000000Z" pubdate title="Time posted: >8/14/2025 7:00:00 AM (UTC)">Aug 14, 2025 PDF (English) PDF (Translations) Listen to Memo Archived Memos Subscribe The Calculus of Value On July 28, I flew to South America on a plane without Wi-Fi, leaving me without email or entertainment. What was I to do but start in on a memo? Interestingly, the things I wrote during that flight turn

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