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Black swan theory - Wikipedia

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The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term arose from a Latin expression which was based on the presumption that black swans did not exist. The expression was used in the original manner until around 1697 when Dutch mariners saw black swans living in Australia. After this, the term was reinterpreted to mean an unforeseen and consequential event.[1] The reinterpreted theory was articulated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, starting in 2001, to explain: In his 2010 book, Taleb defines the term as an event with two characteristics: first, it is so rare and outside the realm of expectations that it is unpredictable; second, its consequences are extreme—either beneficial or catastrophic—though usually only the catastrophic Black Swan events attract attention.[2] Definitionally, Taleb considers black swans to be

Black swan theory - Wikipedia Jump to content From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Theory of response to surprise events A black swan ( Cygnus atratus ) in Tasmania , Australia The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight . The term arose from a Latin expression which was based on the presumption that black swans did not exist. The expression was used in the original manner until around 1697 when Dutch mariners saw b

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