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Opacity: What We Do Not See A Philosophical Notebook, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

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Psychology is undergoing a replication crisis; most of its research is suspicious (statistics are shoddy). Further, I've also shown in Silent Risk that many ideas of "rationality" come from an incomplete application of probability theory. Some derivations (hot hand fallacy) are just mathematically flawed. Some things (hyperbolic discounting, intransitity of preferences, mental accounting, myopic loss aversion, 1/n, "dread risk" fears) are extremely rational once one uses a more rigorous or realistic probability model or consider the difference between the collective and the individual --survival of the collective matters. Rational, it can be shown, is what allows those things that are supposed to survive, to survive. Here I surmise that everything that works in social science and psychology has to be Lindy-proof, that is, have an antecedent in the classics; otherwise it will not replicate or not generalize beyond the experiment. By classics we can define the Latin (& late Helenistic) m

Opacity NNT Normal NNT 162 256 2008-04-26T20:07:00Z 2008-09-07T20:36:00Z 17 29685 169208 1410 338 207799 12.258 150 1 1 false false false false Opacity: What We Do Not See A Philosophical Notebook, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The mathematical version is here . Non philosophorum sed philosophiae historiae NNT’s Home Page 165- 0 false 18 pt 18 pt 0 0 false false false Lindy Effect and Psychological Findings Psychology is undergoing a replication crisis; most of its research is suspicious (statistics are shoddy). Further, I've also shown in Silent Risk that many ideas of "rationality" come from an

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