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America's future could hinge on whether AI slightly disappoints

noahpinion.blog · 1,376 words · saved by 1 readers

A burning question that’s on a lot of people’s minds right now is: Why is the U.S. economy still holding up? The manufacturing industry is hurting badly from Trump’s tariffs, the payroll numbers are looking weak, and consumer sentiment is at Great Recession levels: And yet despite those warning signs, there has been nothing even remotely resembling an economic crash yet. Unemployment is rising a little bit but still extremely low, while the prime-age employment rate — my favorite single indicator of the health of the labor market — is still near all-time highs. The New York Fed’s GDP nowcast thinks that GDP growth is currently running at a little over 2%, while the Atlanta Fed’s nowcast puts it even higher. One possibility is that everything is just fine with the economy — that Trump’s tariffs aren’t actually that high because of all the exemptions, and/or that economists are exaggerating the negative effects of tariffs in the first place. Weak consumer confidence could be a partisan “

America's future could hinge on whether AI slightly disappoints If the economy's single pillar goes down, Trump's presidency will be seen as a disaster. Noah Smith Oct 12, 2025 ∙ Paid 527 107 71 Share Photo by Siddhant Kumar on Unsplash A burning question that’s on a lot of people’s minds right now is: Why is the U.S. economy still holding up? The manufacturing industry is hurting badly from Trump’s tariffs, the payroll numbers are looking weak , and consumer sentiment is at Great Recession levels: And yet despite those warning signs, there has been nothing even remotely resembling an economic

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