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How to Sound Like an Expert in Any AI Bubble Debate

derekthompson.org · 2,625 words · saved by 1 readers

I’m excited to publish this post co-authored with Timothy Lee, one of my favorite writers on technology and artificial intelligence. His Substack Understanding AI is a fantastic guide to how AI works as a technology and a business. In the last few weeks, something’s troubled and fascinated us about the national debate over whether artificial intelligence is a bubble. Everywhere we look and listen, experts are citing the same small number of statistics, factoids, and studies. The debate is like a board game with a tiny number of usable pieces. For example: Talk to AI bears, and they’ll tell you how much Big Tech is spending Talk to AI bulls, and they’ll tell you how much Big Tech is making Talk to artificial general intelligence believers, and they’ll quote a famous study on “task length” by an organization called METR Talk to AGI skeptics, and they’ll quote another famous study on productivity, also by METR Last week, we were discussing how one could capture the entire AI-bubble debate

How to Sound Like an Expert in Any AI Bubble Debate There are 12 statistics, factoids, and studies that dominate every discussion about whether artificial intelligence is a bubble. Here's a deep-dive into all 12 arguments Derek Thompson and Timothy B. Lee Nov 25, 2025 ∙ Paid 333 16 43 Share I’m excited to publish this post co-authored with Timothy Lee, one of my favorite writers on technology and artificial intelligence. His Substack Understanding AI is a fantastic guide to how AI works as a technology and a business. Photo by Gertrūda Valasevičiūtė on Unsplash In the last few weeks, something

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