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Is It a Bubble?

oaktreecapital.com · 9,935 words · saved by 2 readers

Ours is a remarkable moment in world history. A transformative technology is ascending, and its supporters claim it will forever change the world. To build it requires companies to invest a sum of money unlike anything in living memory. News reports are filled with widespread fears that America’s biggest corporations are propping up a bubble that will soon pop. During my visits to clients in Asia and the Middle East last month, I was often asked about the possibility of a bubble surrounding artificial intelligence, and my discussions gave rise to this memo. I want to start off with my usual caveats: I’m not active in the stock market; I merely watch it as the best barometer of investor psychology. I’m also no techie, and I don’t know any more about AI than most generalist investors. But I’ll do my best. One of the most interesting aspects of bubbles is their regularity, not in terms of timing, but rather the progression they follow. Something new and seemingly revolutionary appears and

Is It a Bubble? Opens in a new window Opens an external site Opens an external site in a new window PDF Translations Japanese Korean Simplified Chinese Traditional Chinese Memos from Howard Marks 2025-12-09T08:00:00.0000000Z" pubdate title="Time posted: >12/9/2025 8:00:00 AM (UTC)">Dec 9, 2025 PDF (English) PDF (Translations) Listen to Memo Archived Memos Subscribe Is It a Bubble? Ours is a remarkable moment in world history. A transformative technology is ascending, and its supporters claim it will forever change the world. To build it requires companies to invest a sum of money unlike anythi

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