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Futures with Digital Minds: Expert Forecasts in 2025

digitalminds.report · 32,482 words · saved by 1 readers

We asked experts to forecast scenarios involving computers with the capacity for subjective experience. They predict relatively short timelines, fast takeoff, and uncertain societal impacts.

Summary This survey gathered insights from 67 participants with relevant expertise to explore the future of digital minds—defined here as computer systems capable of subjective experience. The main findings are summarized below. Possibility: Digital minds were generally judged to be possible in principle, with a median probability estimate of 90%. Creation: The probability that digital minds will at some point be created was judged to be 73%. Only 12% of participants thought it was less than 50% probable. Timing: The median estimated probabilities of digital minds being created by a given year

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