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Thought Experiments Provide a Third Anchor

bounded-regret.ghost.io · 1,304 words · saved by 1 readers

Previously, I argued [https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/future-ml-systems-will-be-qualitatively-different/] that we should expect future ML systems to often exhibit "emergent" behavior, where they acquire new capabilities that were not explicitly designed or intended, simply as a result of scaling. This was a special case of a general phenomenon in the physical

Previously, I argued that we should expect future ML systems to often exhibit "emergent" behavior, where they acquire new capabilities that were not explicitly designed or intended, simply as a result of scaling. This was a special case of a general phenomenon in the physical sciences called More Is Different. I care about this because I think AI will have a huge impact on society, and I want to forecast what future systems will be like so that I can steer things to be better. To that end, I find More Is Different to be troubling and disorienting. I’m inclined to forecast the future by looking

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