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Thoughts on AI 2027 — LessWrong

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This is part of the MIRI Single Author Series. Pieces in this series represent the beliefs and opinions of their named authors, and do not claim to speak for all of MIRI. Okay, I'm annoyed at people covering AI 2027 burying the lede, so I'm going to try not to do that. The authors predict a strong chance that all humans will be (effectively) dead in 6 years, and this agrees with my best guess about the future. (My modal timeline has loss of control of Earth mostly happening in 2028, rather than late 2027, but nitpicking at that scale hardly matters.) Their timeline to transformative AI also seems pretty close to the perspective of frontier lab CEO's (at least Dario Amodei, and probably Sam Altman) and the aggregate market opinion of both Metaculus and Manifold! If you look on those market platforms you get graphs like this: Both of these graphs have a peak (a.k.a. mode) in or at the very tail end of 2027 and a weighted midpoint (a.k.a. median) in 2031. Compare with this graph from AI 2

x Thoughts on AI 2027 — LessWrong AI Timelines AI Frontpage 2025 Top Fifty: 16 % 223 Thoughts on AI 2027 by Max Harms 9th Apr 2025 Linkpost for intelligence.org 25 min read 61 223 This is part of the MIRI Single Author Series. Pieces in this series represent the beliefs and opinions of their named authors, and do not claim to speak for all of MIRI. Okay, I'm annoyed at people covering AI 2027 burying the lede, so I'm going to try not to do that. The authors predict a strong chance that all humans will be (effectively) dead in 6 years, and this agrees with my best guess about the future. (My mo

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