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My response to AI 2027

vitalik.eth.limo · 3,712 words · saved by 1 readers

In April this year, Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander and others released what they describe as "a scenario that represents our best guess about what [the impact of superhuman AI over the next 5 years] might look like". The scenario predicts that by 2027 we will have made superhuman AI and the entire future of our civilization hinges on how it turns out: by 2030 we will get either (from the US perspective) utopia or (from any human's perspective) total annihilation. In the months since then, there has been a large volume of responses, with varying perspectives on how likely the scenario that they presented is. For example: Of the critical responses, most tend to focus on the issue of fast timelines: is AI progress actually going to continue and even accelerate as fast as Kokotajlo et al say it will? This is a debate that has been happening in AI discourse for several years now, and plenty of people are very doubtful that superhuman AI will come that quickly. Recently, the length of tas

Dark Mode Toggle My response to AI 2027 2025 Jul 10 See all posts My response to AI 2027 Special thanks to Balvi volunteers for feedback and review In April this year, Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander and others released what they describe as "a scenario that represents our best guess about what [the impact of superhuman AI over the next 5 years] might look like". The scenario predicts that by 2027 we will have made superhuman AI and the entire future of our civilization hinges on how it turns out: by 2030 we will get either (from the US perspective) utopia or (from any human's perspective) t

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