The Causal Effect of Income is (Often) Zero

Evidence on the effect of income on health, education, crime, and child outcomes from lotteries and RCTs

The Causal Effect of Income is (Often) Zero Evidence on the effect of income on health, education, crime, and child outcomes from lotteries and RCTs Maxwell Tabarrok May 19, 2026 123 18 25 Share Poverty is associated with a litany of negative outcomes in addition to the direct effects of material deprivation. For example: low educational attainment , high crime , poor health , food insecurity , high stress , homelessness , and more . If this bundle of associated harms is the causal result of poverty, then the case for poverty-relieving transfers is bolstered. Not only do you get to transfer re

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