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Why AGI Will Not Happen — Tim Dettmers

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If you are reading this, you probably have strong opinions about AGI, superintelligence, and the future of AI. Maybe you believe we are on the cusp of a transformative breakthrough. Maybe you are skeptical. This blog post is for those who want to think more carefully about these claims and examine them from a perspective that is often missing in the current discourse: the physical reality of computation. I have been thinking about this topic for a while now, and what prompted me to finally write this down was a combination of things: a Twitter thread, conversations with friends, and a growing awareness that the thinking around AGI and superintelligence is not just optimistic, but fundamentally flawed. The purpose of this blog post is to address what I see as very sloppy thinking, thinking that is created in an echo chamber, particularly in the Bay Area, where the same ideas amplify themselves without critical awareness. This amplification of bad ideas and thinking exhuded by the ration

If you are reading this, you probably have strong opinions about AGI, superintelligence, and the future of AI. Maybe you believe we are on the cusp of a transformative breakthrough. Maybe you are skeptical. This blog post is for those who want to think more carefully about these claims and examine them from a perspective that is often missing in the current discourse: the physical reality of computation. I have been thinking about this topic for a while now, and what prompted me to finally write this down was a combination of things: a Twitter thread, conversations with friends, and a growing

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