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Daniel Paleka's Shortform — LessWrong

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Among people who have "AGI timelines", most do not set their timelines based on data, but rather update them based on their own day-to-day experiences and social signals. As of 2025, my guess is that individual perception of AI progress correlates with how closely someone's daily activities resemble how an AI researcher spends their time. The reason why users of coding agents feel a higher rate of automation in their bones, whereas people in most other occupations don't, is because automating engineering has been the focus of the industry for a while now. Despite the expectations for 2025 to be the year of the AI agent, it turns out the industry is small and cannot have too many priorities, hence basically the only competent agents we got in 2025 so far are coding agents. Everyone serious about winning the AI race is trying to automate one job: AI R&D. To a first approximation, there is no point yet in automating anything else, except to raise capital (human or investment), or to earn

x Daniel Paleka's Shortform — LessWrong Daniel Paleka's Shortform by Daniel Paleka 31st Mar 2025 1 min read 5 4 This is a special post for quick takes by Daniel Paleka . Only they can create top-level comments. Comments here also appear on the Quick Takes page and All Posts page . Rendering 0 / 5 comments, sorted by top scoring (show more) Click to highlight new comments since: Today at 1:58 PM Moderation Log More from Daniel Paleka View more Curated and popular this week 5 Comments 5 Comment Permalink Daniel Paleka 8mo 102 30 Slow takeoff for AI R&D, fast takeoff for everything else Why is AI

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