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Thinking in Bets - by Annie Duke | Derek Sivers

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Amazing point: Would your belief in something stand up to the question, “Wanna bet?” If you had to gamble significant money on that belief, would you still feel 100% about it? Or maybe more honestly 60%? This creates healthy skepticism encouraging you to seek the best information instead of just defending your belief. Now objective accuracy wins instead of argument.Combine with “The Biggest Bluff” by Maria Konnikova A bet is a decision about an uncertain future. Two things determine how your life turns out: the quality of your decisions, and luck. Recognize the difference between the two. “Resulting” = when you equate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome. A bad result does not mean a bad decision. Hindsight bias is the tendency, after an outcome is known, to see the outcome as having been inevitable. When a decision doesn’t work out, don't treat that result as if it were an inevitable consequence rather than a probabilistic one. Don't focus only on the poor out

A bet is a decision about an uncertain future. Two things determine how your life turns out: the quality of your decisions, and luck. Recognize the difference between the two. “Resulting” = when you equate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome. A bad result does not mean a bad decision. Hindsight bias is the tendency, after an outcome is known, to see the outcome as having been inevitable. When a decision doesn’t work out, don't treat that result as if it were an inevitable consequence rather than a probabilistic one. Don't focus only on the poor outcome. “Real games”: Real

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