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Bayesian Mindset

cold-takes.com · 7,553 words · saved by 2 readers

Click lower right to download or find on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, etc. > This piece is about the in-practice pros and cons of trying to think in terms of probabilities and expected value for real-world decisions, including decisions that don’t obviously lend themselves to this kind of approach. The

Click lower right to download or find on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, etc. This piece is about the in-practice pros and cons of trying to think in terms of probabilities and expected value for real-world decisions, including decisions that don’t obviously lend themselves to this kind of approach. The mindset examined here is fairly common in the “effective altruist” and “rationalist” communities, and there’s quite a bit of overlap between this mindset and that of Rationality: A-Z (aka The Sequences), although there are some differing points of emphasis. 1 If you’d like to learn more abou

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