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Limitations of Laplace’s rule of succession — LessWrong

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Summary Laplace’s rule typically overestimates the chance of unprecedented events occurring; this is because it assigns 50% to the event occurring in…

x Limitations of Laplace’s rule of succession — LessWrong World Modeling Frontpage 35 Limitations of Laplace’s rule of succession by Tom Davidson 19th Apr 2022 7 min read 2 35 Summary Laplace’s rule typically overestimates the chance of unprecedented events occurring; this is because it assigns 50% to the event occurring in the first timestep. We can do better by using a rule that assigns a lower probability to the event occurring in the timestep, choosing the new probability using empirical reference classes or common sense. Introduction A couple of years ago I spent some time thinking about

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