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Induction; or, the rules and etiquette of reference class tennis — LessWrong
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Some disasters (catastrophic climate change, high-energy physics surprises) are so serious that even a small probability (say 1%) of such a disaster…
x Induction; or, the rules and etiquette of reference class tennis — LessWrong Inside/Outside View Occam's Razor Personal Blog 12 Induction; or, the rules and etiquette of reference class tennis by paulfchristiano 3rd Mar 2013 11 min read 8 12 (Cross-posted from rationalaltruist .) Some disasters (catastrophic climate change, high-energy physics surprises) are so serious that even a small probability (say 1%) of such a disaster would have significant policy implications. Unfortunately, making predictions about such unlikely events is extremely unreliable. This makes it difficult to formally ju
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