flâneur — a map of the web's best reading

Induction; or, the rules and etiquette of reference class tennis — LessWrong

lesswrong.com · 4,071 words · saved by 1 readers

Some disasters (catastrophic climate change, high-energy physics surprises) are so serious that even a small probability (say 1%) of such a disaster…

x Induction; or, the rules and etiquette of reference class tennis — LessWrong Inside/Outside View Occam's Razor Personal Blog 12 Induction; or, the rules and etiquette of reference class tennis by paulfchristiano 3rd Mar 2013 11 min read 8 12 (Cross-posted from rationalaltruist .) Some disasters (catastrophic climate change, high-energy physics surprises) are so serious that even a small probability (say 1%) of such a disaster would have significant policy implications. Unfortunately, making predictions about such unlikely events is extremely unreliable. This makes it difficult to formally ju

Explore this link on the map →

related reading