Will We See AI with Recursive Self Improvement in 2028? Likely Not.
Jack Clark of Anthropic recently made a startling claim: “there’s a likely chance (60%+) that no-human-involved AI R&D - an AI system powerful enough that it could plausibly autonomously build its own successor - happens by the end of 2028.”
Will We See AI with Recursive Self Improvement in 2028? Likely Not. Arun Rao May 06, 2026 74 5 16 Share Jack Clark of Anthropic recently made a startling claim : “there’s a likely chance (60%+) that no-human-involved AI R&D - an AI system powerful enough that it could plausibly autonomously build its own successor - happens by the end of 2028.” I think human-free recursive, e2e self-improvement is improbable in that short a timeframe (my estimate is <10%) , though I do think it’s possible over a decade through 2036 (where we will learn more each year about what key bottlenecks are, where human
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